Long-Term Health Care Forecaster and Futurist
Ian is an internationally known author, consultant, and futurist specializing in long-term forecasting and planning with particular emphasis on health care and the changing business environment. He combines research and consulting skills with an incisive Scottish wit to help public and private organizations plan their longer-term future.
Ian has written, lectured, and consulted on a wide variety of forecasting, strategy, and health care topics for government, industry, and a variety of nonprofit organizations in North America, Europe, and Asia. He has spoken to a range of audiences from the boards of Fortune 100 companies to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. Ian has worked with more than 100 Fortune 500 companies in health care, manufacturing, information technology, and financial services. Recent client sponsors include GE, Kaiser Permanente and the Mayo Clinic. He is a frequent commentator on the future for television, radio, and the print media.
Ian is the author of Leading Change in Health Care: Building a Viable System for Today and Tomorrow (2011), and Healthcare in the New Millennium: Vision, Values and Leadership (2002). His previous book: The Second Curve – Managing The Velocity of Change (1996) was a New York Times Business Bestseller and Businessweek Bestseller. Ian has co-authored several books and chapters, including Future Tense: The Business Realities of the Next Ten Years (1994) and Looking Ahead at American Health Care (1988). He also has co-authored numerous journal articles for publications such as Chief Executive, Encyclopaedia Britannica, Across the Board, The British Medical Journal, New England Journal of Medicine, and Health Affairs.
Health Care Forecaster
Ian is a past President of the Institute for the Future (IFTF). Ian is a founding partner in Strategic Health Perspectives a joint venture between Harris Interactive and the Harvard School of Public Health’s Department of Health Policy and Management. In 2017 the Strategic Health Perspectives team joined with Leavitt Partners (Health Intelligence Partners HIP program) a forecasting and intelligence service for clients in the healthcare industry. Ian serves as a Senior Advisor to Leavitt Partners and to HIP.
Health Futures Forum
From 1996-1999, Ian was retained by Accenture, (formerly Andersen Consulting), as Chairman of the Health Futures Forum. In that capacity, Ian chaired a number of international forums on the future of healthcare. Before coming to IFTF in 1985, Ian spent seven years in British Columbia, Canada, in a variety of research, teaching, and consulting positions.
Before coming to IFTF in 1985, Ian spent seven years in British Columbia, Canada, in a variety of research, teaching, and consulting positions. He holds an interdisciplinary Ph.D. in urban studies from the University of British Columbia; an M.A. in geography from the University of Edinburgh, Scotland, and a graduate degree in urban planning from the University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne, England.
He is a past member of the Board of Directors of SFN Group (an NYSE company); a past director of the Health Research and Education Trust (HRET), the research and education arm of the American Hospital Association; a past director of the Center for Health Design; and a director and past-chair of the California Health Care Foundation. He recently joined the board of the New Martin Luther King Hospital in Los Angeles. Ian also served as a member of the Stakeholders Advisory Committee of the Program for Health Systems Improvement at Harvard University.
In 2018 Ian received the American Hospital Association’s Board of Trustees Award, for his more than 20 years of service to the AHA and the healthcare field.
A Look at the Next Economy
Massive forces of change are shaping the Next Economy. Demographic shifts around the world, powerful new technologies, and new organizational forms are creating change for organizations and individuals. Futurist Ian Morrison, with his incisive Scottish wit, will explain where the global economy has been and where it is headed, with particular emphasis on what it all means for American audiences whether they be corporations, non profit organizations or individuals. Drawing on more than 25 years experience as a futurist, Ian provides a lively and engaging view of what lies ahead and what it means for you and your organization.
The Future of the Healthcare Marketplace: What’s Next 2021?
A new Democratic Administration must deal with the Covid pandemic and the economic damage it has done. The Biden Administration has signaled that Covid recovery, restoration of the Affordable Care Act and addressing health inequity its top health priorities. Organizations and individuals need to be flexible to adjust to a changing marketplace including the push for more widespread reimbursement reform, changes in coverage (including more populations under public payment such as Medicare and Medicaid), growth in transparency and accountability, and the relentless quest for value in healthcare driven by patients and purchasers. In this uncertain environment significant consolidation is underway as both for for-profit and non-profit consolidation occurs and as both horizontal and vertical integration takes place throughout the healthcare ecosystem. Threats of disruption from new entrants and new combinations abound from Big Tech and Big Retail such as Apple, Amazon, CVS Health, Wal Mart and Microsoft to well financed start-ups and digital disruptors. This presentation will focus on the political, economic, and strategic context of change in healthcare, describe the possible scenarios we face and examine how the various actors are preparing for the future. Drawing on experience from around the country and relying on deep research and experience it will identify the leadership challenges and opportunities that lie ahead and will provide strategic insights on how organizations and individuals can flourish in the future.
THE SECOND CURVE: Managing the Velocity of Change
The thesis of Ian Morrison’s The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change) is that most businesses in most industries are going along quite nicely on their first curve (their core business) where they make all their profit and revenue. Then along comes a second curve – a new business or completely new way of doing business – that threatens to replace the first curve. The second curve is driven by the confluence of three powerful driving forces: new technologies, such as the Internet; new consumers, who are smarter, more affluent, more skeptical and more demanding than the previous generation; and new markets, such as China, with its 1.2 billion consumers. The challenge is to gauge how fast the second curve will take over and develop strategy accordingly. All of the current profit is on the First Curve, all of the future growth is on the Second Curve. But there is a natural human tendency to overestimate the impact of phenomena in the short run, and underestimate it in the long run. The key is to understand and manage the velocity of change.